Study 3: A campaign manager wanted to know where their candidate stood two weeks before the mayoral election. They made 1,000 random phone calls to ask voters who they planned to vote for.

What is the hypothesis?

A. The candidate being surveyed will have majority support.
B. The campaign manager has no hypothesis.
C. One candidate will have greater support among undecided voters.
D. Most voters will choose the incumbent candidate.

Answer :

Final answer:

The hypothesis in the polling context involves predicting voter support for a candidate. Possible hypotheses include claims about majority support or preferences among undecided voters. A definitive answer would require further context, but option A (the candidate has majority support) is a valid hypothesis.


Explanation:

Understanding the Hypothesis in Polling

The hypothesis in the context of this campaign manager's polling question refers to a specific assertion or prediction regarding voter support for the candidate. In this case, we can evaluate the options available:

  • A The candidate being surveyed will have majority support.
  • B The campaign manager has no hypothesis.
  • One candidate will have greater support among undecided voters.
  • Most voters will choose the incumbent candidate.

The most appropriate hypothesis here would be A or D, as both suggest a prediction about the potential voter distribution. However, since we cannot definitively conclude which candidate will receive majority support based only on random phone calls without further context or data, it's hard to support D. Hypothetically, if prior polling and analysis of voter trends before the election inferred a clear lead, then A could also make sense.

Hypotheses in polling help shape expectations before an election and allow campaign managers to gauge their candidate's standing over time, similar to how polling data indicated various outcomes in previous elections, such as the one concerning candidate preferences in the 2020 presidential election.


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