Answer :
In the example of predicting the percentage of votes using polling data, the inclusion of whether the candidate is an incumbent provides additional information that can affect the outcome.
An incumbent is a candidate who currently holds the position they are running for. The support in the polls alone may not fully capture the dynamics of the election.
By considering whether the candidate is an incumbent, we can take into account the advantage or disadvantage they may have due to already holding the position.
For example, incumbents often have name recognition, experience, and resources that can give them an advantage over challengers.
Voters may be more inclined to vote for an incumbent due to familiarity and perceived effectiveness in office.
On the other hand, incumbents may also face backlash or dissatisfaction from voters who want change or are unhappy with their performance.
In summary, including whether the candidate is an incumbent in the analysis of the percentage of votes using polling data allows us to consider the additional factors that may influence the election outcome.
This provides a more comprehensive understanding of the dynamics at play and can help make more accurate predictions.
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