Answer :
Final answer:
Higher Consumer Confidence Index scores usually predict greater support for the incumbent party or candidate. This is because consumers who are confident about the economy are more likely to support the existing administration. Conversely, low scores can indicate a shift, leading to greater support for challengers.
Explanation:
Understanding Consumer Confidence Index and Election Outcomes
The Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) is a statistical measure that gauges consumer optimism regarding the economy's performance. Higher scores on the CCI typically indicate that consumers feel more secure about their financial situations and the overall economy. This increased confidence can significantly influence election outcomes.
Impact on Incumbent Support
Research shows that when the CCI is high, there tends to be greater support for the incumbent party or candidate. This is because consumers, feeling optimistic about their economic prospects, are more likely to support the current administration, believing that it is effectively managing the economy. For example, in the 2016 US presidential election, higher CCI scores around the election period were associated with greater support for the incumbent party at that time.
Challenger Support
On the other hand, if the CCI is low, indicating economic distress or pessimism, it can lead to lower support for the incumbent and greater support for the challenger as voters seek change. Thus, the CCI serves as a predictor not only of consumer behavior but also of political climate during elections.
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